On 29th March ‘free and fair’ elections were held in Zimbabwe. In the days and weeks which have passed since the people went to the polls, reports of escalating violence, intimidation and corruption abound – and the results are still not released. Incumbent president, Robert Mugabe, continues to hold office, hundreds of people now lie in hospital, many more forced from their homes, but the international community looks on, unable to act and seemingly caught tongue-tied when action is most desperately needed. ZANU-PF, Mugabe’s party, which has held power for 28 years, has been defeated in the Parliamentary elections. Hope was high that the President himself would be forced to concede defeat. The more waiting goes on, however, the more this hope fades, and no obvious resolution to this crisis is in view.

Over a quarter of a century ago, when Zimbabwe was created, independence declared, and Mugabe victorious, there was anticipation, both at home and abroad for a better future. Writing in 1983, Jeffrey Davidow said “in the future, Zimbabwe’s position as a regional power, and perhaps as a leader of Africa as a whole will increase.” Perhaps this was an overly optimistic outlook, but considering the natural resources with which the country is endowed, combined with the popular support behind Mugabe, the potential of this nation was great. In the 28 years which have passed, hopes of Zimbabwe becoming a stable democratic force in the southern Africa, economically prosperous, an example for other states to follow, has withered. By amending the constitution at will, Mugabe created a one-party state, opposition rooted out, dissenting voices threatened and removed. In the 1980s the government killed 8000 in uprisings in Matabeleland and the Midlands. In 1990 the presidential elections were nationally and internationally condemned as rigged. In 2002, elections were held amid allegations of vote rigging, intimidation and fraud. And now, his ruthless nature is once again emerging, in an attempt to prevent democracy being fulfilled.

According to Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, the government of Zimbabwe violates rights to shelter, food, freedom of movement, freedom of assembly and protection of the law. The people are starving, the economy is in free- fall, disease is spreading fast, and the government sits by. Four million people are facing severe food shortages, 1.8 million people are living with HIV, 80% are unemployed, and Zimbabwe now has the lowest life expectancy in the world – 37 for men, 34 for women. Inflation is currently at 165,000% although economists predict it may rise to as much as 500,000% by the end of the month. To illustrate the extent of the current monetary disaster in real terms, at the time of going to press, a can of Diet Coke cost Z$56million. This would have bought a grand mansion ten years ago. A spokesperson from Christian Aid has said “the country is close to meltdown.”

The desperate state of the country prior to the election catastrophe was surely harsh enough, but now a month on from polling day, the situation has intensified. Fear is spreading across the country, and demands for change are high. The MDC, Movement for Democratic Change, claims Morgan Tsvangirai, their leader, won 50.3% of the presidential vote, and independent polls suggest a 49% share. By the constitution the winning candidate must secure more than 50% of the vote to avoid the run off poll. While Tsvangirai pleads with neighbouring African nations to intervene, to halt the current crisis, Mugabe’s ‘war veterans’, the muscle of the regime, have been called out. “We fear this is the prelude to a government crackdown on political opposition and civil society in the wake of a hotly contested election,” states Georgette Gagnon, the African director of Human Rights Watch.

There are concerns that the MDC is little better, however. Reports of violence and intimidation of voters by Tsvingarai’s supporters have been emerging. According to Paul Nyathi, a civil rights lawyer and resident of Bulawayo, the “thuggish behaviour” of some members of the MDC has escaped attention “because the big prize is still to rid the country of Mugabe and his cronies.”

Many believe that an African solution to this current crisis, as a means to ensure stability after the result is declared, is still the most viable option. It is widely believed that South Africa plays a most crucial role in developments in Zimbabwe. Precedent has shown that when intervention, even in small ways, has been attempted, some measure of success has been achieved. Mbeki hosted talks in December 2007 between ZANU-PF and the MDC, which although ultimately declared a failure, seemed to have provided the impetus for the government machine to refrain from violence in these recent elections. Yet Mbeki’s constant failure to vocalise any condemnation of Mugabe publicly, only recently acknowledging that he was flawed in his previous assumption that there was “no crisis” in Zimbabwe, has led many to question whether the South African government is capable of regional leadership to end the current crisis.

South Africa’s Sunday Times recently reported that “South Africa’s strategy of quiet diplomacy has done little more than cosset Mugabe while he raped his country.” Gordon Brown, and the Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, have now called on African leaders to isolate Mr Mugabe, for there is very little the UN, the EU or even the African Union can do to support Zimbabwe if her neighbours refuse to act. So far the response has been far from encouraging – the feeble response of the SADC, South African Democratic Congress, last week in finding a plausible solution to the crisis has increased concerns that an African solution is going to be hard to achieve. Yet the people of South Africa have showed great courage, which their leaders should now imitate. By refusing to unload shipments of arms, dockers have orchestrated a domino effect. The South African Archbishop, Desmond Tutu has joined the call for an international arms embargo to be placed on Zimbabwe, and the British government has rejoined the call.

The extent to which the international community, and particularly the West, can intervene, is limited, however. Colonialism and white oppression still looms large in this nation. Britain, in the last decade alone, has not helped its cause. British criticism of the regime has figured in Mugabe’s view of “black Africa under siege by white colonialists,” and a consistent misunderstanding of the complexities of the internal psychology of this nation has done more harm than good. History seems to have tied our hands behind our backs. A spokesperson of Mr Brown stated that if the election is deemed to be stolen, there is very little Western governments can do about it. Britain cannot be seen to be meddling, and the West lacks credibility in the region to intervene. However, now that evidence of persistent violence and human rights abuses is pouring in, a strategy of more than quiet diplomacy and ‘pointing fingers’ is required.

By urging Zimbabwe’s influential neighbours to apply pressure, by offering substantial monetary support, and by placing our faith in the powers of the region, there is a chance for Zimbabwe to surmount its current difficulties. The international community must now assist those who have a chance of ending this crisis. A run-off is dangerous, a coup is worse, but we cannot wait any longer. As David Miliband said, Mugabe “is clinging to power and beating his own people to death.” Nearly a year ago, in July 2007, Zimbabwe’s leading cleric asked: “Is the world just going to let everything collapse on us?” We must answer “no.” A settlement must be found. And once this crisis is past, rebuilding a nation, once of so much promise, will be the task at hand. We must not shrink from it.